Boks by 10

On the eve of the opening Tri Nations clash between South Africa and Australia, and now that both sides have been announced, we take a look at the key battles that are likely to be a feature of the game.

Australia have been at the mindgames the entire week, with one coach or player after another sounding off on Saturday’s game. First it was the turn of Gregan and Larkham to praise the Boks and attempt to install the Wallabies as the underdogs. Tuquiri thought that all the controversy surrounding the Bok coach was a deliberate attempt by the Springboks to make the Aussies believe SA are in disarray. Giteau ironically told the Boks to stop talking ahead of the game and came up with a brilliant plan to beat the Springboks: “Obviously we’ve got to match them physically. Once we do that, we’ve got to look to outsmart them.” Good luck getting past step 1 Matt.

Later in the week, the standard attempts at influencing the referee began with Wallaby forwards coach Michael Foley pointing out that, in his opinion, BJ Botha scrums illegally. This just served to highlight how much the Aussies fear the Bok scrum. Their selections proved as much when Stephen Moore was selected at hooker in place of Adam Freier. Knuckles Connolly has been buffing Jake White’s ego by commending him on a job well done in coaching the Springboks.

Jake, meanwhile has been embroiled in one fiasco after another but appears to have come through the week’s challenges relatively unscathed. The players meanwhile have been getting on with the business of preparing for the big game. Only Jaque Fourie has spoken to the media and that was only because he was at the Bok team press conference.

“The legend” Robbie Fleck showed that he still has a fair amount of animosity towards the Wallabies by pelting them with iceblocks at a Cape Town bar.

Bernie Larkham talked about playing his final game on South African soil. He also said that he may return to South Africa on holiday some day, but that it was not likely.

So much for the off-the-field incidents of the past week. Let’s look at what is likely to happen on the field on Saturday.

Undoubtedly the key battle is going to be in the set pieces – particularly the scrums. This is the first time that the frontrow grouping of Steenkamp-Smit-Botha has turned out for the Boks, and it looks to be a strong combination. Especially when you look at what the Aussies have to offer. However, I don’t think we should go overboard in expecting a total annihilation at scrum time. The Bok scrum only really came to the fore against the Samoans, being decidedly average against the weak Poms.

Gert Smal is not, by a long shot, the best forwards coach in the world. Why are the Boks never as dominant with all the talent at their disposal? He should have the easiest job in the world, but he always seems to be a couple of steps off the pace when it comes to his preparation and knowledge of  the latest trends and techniques in dark arts of forward play. Despite this, the Boks should have the edge in this department on sheer strength and power alone.

The South Africans should have the lineout covered with Victor Matfield arguably the premier lock forward (certainly lineout forward) in the world at the moment. Spies’s height at the tail with be advantageous too.

At the breakdown I would have to say that the Boks have an edge, albeit slight. The only reason is because Rassie Erasmus has been given full authority over coaching the loose forwards. He will certainly come up with a cunning plan to best the Aussies in this area. Pierre Spies will want to make up for his nightmare debut in the 49-0 drubbing by the Wallabies in last year’s Tri Nations. Schalk Burger will be his usual energetic self as his resurgence continues. Juan Smith is becoming like Andre Venter in that he never seems to have a bad game.

They are up against the formidable trio of Rocky Elsom, George Smith and Wycliff Palu. George Smith is the danger man for the Aussies, and could cause problems for the Springboks, particularly at the breakdown, if he plays as well as he has in recent games.

It’s in the backline that the Australians seem to hold the aces. The brilliant former Brumbies axis of Gregan-Larkham-Giteau has been reunited and should pose problems for their rusty Bok opposite numbers. Ruan Pienaar makes his first start at scrumhalf and hopefully his Springbok genes and his experience playing against Gregan in the Super14 will help him out. Butch may be a bit rusty, while Jean de Villiers needs to turn his recent run of poor form around. Aussie captain Mortlock is always a threat with his size and power and the Boks would do well to keep him in check.

The game looks like it is going to be all about the classic test match values: airtight defence and turning pressure and field position into points. Boks to win by 10.

Previous Results:

2006: South Africa won 24-16 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg.
2006: Australia won 20-18 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2006: Australia won 49-0 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
2005: South Africa won 22-19 at Subiaco Oval, Perth
2005: South Africa won 22-16 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
2005: South Africa won 33-20 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
2005: Australia won 12-30 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2004: South Africa won 23-19 at Kings Park Stadium, Durban
2004: Australia won 30-26 at Subiaco Oval, Perth
2003: Australia won 29-9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Match Details:

Date: Saturday, 16 June 2007
Venue: Newlands, Cape Town
Time: 15.00 SA time (13:00 GMT)
Weather: 23 degrees, Sunny
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Linesmen: Alain Rolland (Ireland), Hugh Watkins (Wales)
TMO: Simon McDowell (Ireland)