GROOT Tri Nations Preview – Boks vs All Blacks

Last week it was off-the-field incidents and politics that bedevilled the Bok preparations – this week it has been injuries.

Injuries

Captain John Smit injured his knee and hamstring against the Aussies, while Gurthro Steenkamp found himself announced in the Bok team only to be replaced by Os Du Randt three minutes later!

Juan Smith and Pierre Spies have been ruled out at the last minute and are replaced by Danie Rossouw and Bobby Skinstad respectively. The losses of John Smit and Juan Smith were anticipated, but the late loss of Pierre Spies is a huge blow. Bobby simply does not have the power and speed of Spies (but then who does?), although his experience will be invaluable against the New Zealanders.

“I would rather not have players going into the game 70 or 80 percent fit. You have to be at your best to play against the All Blacks,” said Jake White on Thursday.

John Smit is replaced by Gary Botha, who looks set to have a long afternoon against the juggernaut New Zealand front row of Hayman-Oliver-Woodcock. All Jake White’s talk this week has been about how lucky Botha will be to have the experienced Os Du Randt packing down next to him.

True, but how long can Os possibly last – his dodgy knee looked far from 100% in training this week. When, not if, he leaves the field he will be replaced by CJ van der Linde – a specialist tighthead prop – at loosehead against the formidable Carl Hayman. There will be no place for Gary to hide!

Anton Oliver hinted that the Bok scrum will now be easier to split down the middle. Botha is good, but he is not in the same class as Smit when it comes to scrummaging.

All Black assistant coach Wayne Smith does not expect the changes to disrupt the South African team.

“Of course, any disruption is difficult. But Jake has been clever in the way he has used his players during the past few years. He took specific players on tour while others had a rest. I am sure the players coming into the side now will be up to the task.

“We saw that in the Super 14 and in previous Test matches. I doubt whether Jake is playing games. But I usually don’t look at the other team too much. We’ll just have to see who runs out on Saturday,” he said.

The captaincy

The other big talking point has been the captaincy. Matfield takes over the role in the absence of John Smit and it will be interesting to see how the Boks respond to his leadership, and how it affects Matfield’s own game. He may have captained the Bulls to the Super 14 title this year, but the pressure of test match rugby (especially against the best side in the world) could get to him.

Jake was reportedly not happy with Matfield’s decisions against the Wallabies last week not to kick for posts from a couple of late penalties. Luckily Frans Steyn’s dropkick heroics saved Big Vic’s blushes.

Current form

Looking at current form, it’s difficult to judge the All Blacks based on their warm up games against France ‘C’ and Canada, but there is a feeling that they need a big game. They appear to be a little undercooked.

South Africa has played with a more settled line-up across more positions and had a fine defensive match against Australia and they will be much the better for that performance.

The Boks have been boosted by their opening win in the competition while the All Blacks have been playing with mixed combinations in their three warm up games and in each of those games there were moments when cohesion was uncharacteristically loose.

The key players to watch

Victor Matfield – All eyes will be on Big Vic in his role of captain of the Boks. He did well as captain of the Bulls (leading them to the Super 14 title) and there is no reason why he shouldn’t carry that success over into the international arena. In the lineouts, the All Blacks would do well not to throw the ball anywhere near the Big Unit.

Ruan Pienaar -  Pienaar, in his debut start at scrumhalf last week, delivered more quick ball than Ricky J does in a year of test matches. On attack, he has a great eye for the gap and acceleration to match his vision. He will need to pressurize his opposite number Byron Kelleher into mistakes – a tough prospect as the Kiwi has hit a rich vein of form of late.

Butch James – Is Butch the flyhalf to take us to victory at the World Cup? White seems to have settled on the Sharks man as his first choice number 10. This weekend he has a chance to prove his credentials against Dan Carter – the best in the world. If Butch can disrupt Carter it will be a massive boost for the Boks’ chances.

Troy Flavell – After a few seasons in the international wilderness, Flavell has worked on the disciplinary issues which dogged him early on in his carrier. He’s come back a more mature and effective player. The All Blacks are in a bit of a second-row crisis at the moment – but one has to admire their strength in depth when their third choice combination is Flavell-Rawlinson! Flavell will need to fulfill the ‘Bakkies Botha role’ for the Blacks and get up in the Boks’ faces.

Isaia Toeava – New Zealand’s Next Big Thing had a terrific Super 14 full of tries, tackle-breaks and steps and has shown he is up to international level. Graham Henry could finally have found an outside centre to rely on for the next four years. Fourie and De Villiers will have to mark him out of the game. Boys, you’ve got to get your first tackles on Toeva in early, even if they’re late!
 
Carl Hayman – Hayman is the best prop in the world right now, but this will be a major test for the Kiwi hardman when he comes up against Os Du Randt – the wily old campaigner. It probably won’t be for too long though, as Os is not looking 100%. Expect Hayman to attack CJ when he comes on to replace Du Randt.

Likely tactics

In New Zealand, there has been lots of talk about the All Blacks playing the high-speed game, sending the ball wide and trying to run South Africa ragged. Coupled with this is denying the Bok forwards too many lineouts and the physical confrontation on which they thrive. Already the Springbok management have been challenging the All Blacks to play this brand of running rugby – and get smashed down by the Bok rush defence.

Expect more tactical kicking from the All Blacks than was on display against France and Canada. Kicks just in behind the defence and high up and unders to test Monty and catch the Boks behind their advantage line will be a priority for the Kiwis.

The Boks will obviously target Dan Carter but I don’t think he will disappear again like he did against the Boks at Newlands in 2005. Aaron Mauger and Mils Muliaina will look to relieve the pressure on Carter by helping out in the tactical kicking department.

The inclusion of Anton Oliver in the All Blacks scrum makes it look like they have targeted the set piece as an attacking weapon against the Boks. My plea to the Springboks is to watch out for Keven Mealamu when he comes off the bench to replace Oliver later on. This guy is always deadly against us – especially from broken play and rolling mauls close to our line.

In the lineouts, the All Blacks will want to use Jerry Collins and Rodney So’oialo as options and avoid throwing the ball in anywhere near Victor Matfield.

The traditional Springbok areas of strength have been seriously undermined through injury this week. The scrum has lost its edge with the loss of the scrummaging power of Barney Smit. A fully fit Os would usually make up for this but the big man will be lucky if he manages to survive the first half.

The losses of Juan Smith and Pierre Spies in the back row are also huge and this will now be an area where the All Blacks will really look to dominate. The Bok work at the breakdown has always been a fair bit behind that of the All Blacks and we will probably see this trend continue on Saturday. Smith’s loss is particularly problematic since his replacement Danie Rossouw is a totally different type of player – more of a plodder than a dynamic big man like Juan.

In the backline, the All Blacks are streets ahead with the only discernable chink in the armour being the relative inexperience of Toeva. But we’ve all seen what he can do in the Super14, and the Boks will underestimate him at their peril. The lack of pace of Willemse and the lack of experience of JP Pietersen out wide will be a concern.

The key to unlocking the All Black defense is creativity, and to this end Jean De Villiers needs to have a big game. We seem to say that every week, and he showed glimpses of his old self against the Aussies. But he needs a consistently brilliant performance to silence the growing ranks of his critics.

With the amount of possession the Boks had against the Wallabies, they should’ve buried them. It’s a given that they won’t see half as much ball against the All Blacks, so they need to be much more effective with the ball that they do manage to get their hands on.

The All Blacks are the most dangerous team on the planet with ball in hand and Schalk Burger is going to need a big game on the ground in trying to slow their ball down and win some turnovers. A tough task in any test, but doubly difficult against the best loose forward in the world, All Black captain Richie McCaw. Bobby is going to have to get stuck in and help Schalla in the loose.

As at Newlands in 2005, and especially given the injury situation in the Bok camp, huge defense will be what wins it for the Boks. They proved in that Newlands game that the Kiwis can be disrupted if the Kelleher-Carter combination is unsettled through the application of massive pressure. But I’m sure that the All Blacks will know that and will have worked on eradicating that weakness from their game.

Prediction

The Boks are on a high after the Super 14 successes of the last year, and have been boosted by their narrow win over Australia.  However, that victory did come at the cost of several crucial injuries as well as many bumps and bruises.

The All Blacks will provide a much sterner test for the home side, especially since they won’t see half as much possession as they saw against the Wallabies. New Zealand are fresh while the Springboks are not. The Boks will put up a good fight, but they may find themselves run ragged by the end of Saturday.

The All Blacks are not the best team in the world for nothing, but the Boks have the advantages of homeground support, confidence, good form and the benefit of having played an intense test against the Aussies last week.

The Kiwis may feel the effects of travel come Saturday. Unfortunately (for the Boks) the game is not being played at altitude which would compound the All Blacks’ fatigue.

The New Zealand public seem to have doubts about their team, with 78% of readers on yahooextra.net.nz surprisingly backing the Springboks to win the Tri-Nations.

My prediction is: Boks by 3, but only if they can put in a defensive effort on a par with what the Australians delivered last week.dfence.jpg

The teams

Os Du Randt – 1 – Tony Woodcock
Gary Botha – 2 – Anton Oliver
BJ Botha -  3 – Carl Hayman
Bakkies Botha – 4 – Troy Flavell
Victor Matfield (C) – 5 – Greg Rawlinson
Schalk Burger – 6 – Jerry Collins
Danie Rossouw – 7 – Richie McCaw (C)
Bob Skinstad – 8 – Rodney So’oialo

Ruan Pienaar – 9 – Byron Kelleher
Butch James – 10 – Daniel Carter
JP Pietersen – 11 – Sitiveni Sivivatu
Jean de Villiers – 12 – Aaron Mauger
Jaque Fourie – 13 – Isaia Toeava
Ashwin Willemse – 14 – Joe Rokocoko
Percy Montgomery – 15 – Mils Muliaina

Bismarck du Plessis – 16 – Keven Mealamu
CJ van der Linde – 17 – Neemia Tialata
Johann Muller – 18 – Ross Filipo
Pedrie Wannenburg – 19 – Chris Masoe
Michael Claasens – 20 – Piri Weepu
Wynand Olivier – 21 – Luke McAlister
Francois Steyn – 22 – Leon MacDonald

Match facts

Competiton: Vodacom Tri Nations 2007
Date: Saturday 23 June 2007
Venue: ABSA Stadium, Durban, South Africa
Altitude: Sea level
Kick-off: 15.00 SA (13.00 GMT)
Weather: 25°C, sunny, low humidity, little wind.
Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland)
Touch judges: Wayne Barnes (England), Simon McDowell (Ireland)
Television match official: Hugh Watkins (Wales)

Broadcast times

UK: Sky Sports SSX – 13:30 UK
SA: Mnet Supersport – 14:00 SA (Buildup) – Game at 15:00 SA
WWW: Radio Sonder Grense (www.rsg.co.za) – 15:00 SA (Afrikaans Radio)

Head to head record

Played 70 – New Zealand 38, South Africa 29, Draws 3

Recent results

2000: New Zealand won 25-12 in Christchurch
2000: South Africa won 46-40 in Johannesburg
2001: New Zealand won 12-3 in Cape Town
2001: New Zealand won 26-15 in Auckland
2002: New Zealand won 41-20 in Wellington
2002: New Zealand won 30-23 in Durban
2003: New Zealand won 52-16 in Pretoria
2003: New Zealand won 19-11 in Dunedin
2003: New Zealand won 29-9 in Melbourne
2004: New Zealand won 23-21 in Christchurch
2004: South Africa won 40-26 in Johannesburg
2005: South Africa won 22-16 in Cape Town
2005: New Zealand won 31-27 in Dunedin
2006: New Zealand won 35-17 in Wellington
2006: New Zealand won 45-26 in Pretoria
2006: South Africa won 21-20 in Rustenburg

Nag Ou Grote…

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11 thoughts on “GROOT Tri Nations Preview – Boks vs All Blacks

  1. Boks by 7… (with 5 minutes to go, a penalty to draw then a last minute try by Pienaar in the corner!!!) Schalkie – PLEASE DON’T GET SENT OFF… we’ll be done for! 🙂

  2. I think the Boks will just edge this one – with home town advantage being the deciding factor. Gonna need some BIG D though. 18-15 Boks.

  3. This is going to be one helluva test match – probably the highlight of this year’s season – except for the rwc final of course. Will be interesting to see if bobby holds up for the whole 80 minutes. He’s going to have a VERY busy day helping Schalk ‘the machine’ in the loose. His tackling’s going to have to improve too. No slipped tackles like against samoa bobby!! Springboks by 3

  4. 👿 HELL’S TEETH this is going to be huge! This is what we are born for…bok 13 black 10

  5. Tough one to call. The heart says “Bok!” while the head says “Black!”. I think our advantage will be that we have a tough game under our belts – and a confidence boosting victory. I still have to go with my head and say All Blacks by 10.

  6. Wats the score i am in aus wit no access to the game – HELP! Ek’s n BOK

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