AI Grote: Leinster 80%
Sports4Cast: Leinster 95%
Ou Grote (Rob): Leinster by 7
Ou Grote (James): Leinster by 9
Leinster are strong favourites against a lower-tier side, hence a high probability.
AI Grote: Sharks 65%
Sports4Cast: Sharks 69%
Ou Grote (Rob): Sharks by 9
Ou Grote (James): Sharks by 7
Sharks at home are usually strong; Scarlets are capable of surprises, but this fixture leans clearly to the home side.
AI Grote: Ulster 55%
Sports4Cast: Lions 60%
Ou Grote (Rob): Ulster by 3
Ou Grote (James): Ulster by 5
Ulster’s consistency and touring experience edge them over Lions, though not by a huge margin.
AI Grote: Glasgow Warriors 60%
Sports4Cast: Glasgow Warriors 66%
Ou Grote (Rob): Glasgow Warriors by 6
Ou Grote (James): Bulls by 1
Rugby365: Glasgow Warriors by 6
Though Bulls are a heavy force, Glasgow’s Scotstoun fortress + home crowd support gives them a moderate edge. Still a tough match — 60/40 feels about right.
2026 Greatest Rivalry Tour – New Zealand in South Africa fixtures
Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry, an alternating quadrennial tour between South Africa and New Zealand, has been confirmed, marking a defining new chapter for the intense rivalry between the sport’s most successful and storied nations. In the tour’s maiden year, South Africa will host New Zealand in August and September 2026.
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Lions 65%
Sports4Cast: Lions 64%
Ou Grote (Rob): Scarlets by 3
Ou Grote (James): Lions by 3
Rugby365: Lions by 2
The Lions on home soil are a strong pick, particularly given Scarlets’ inconsistent touring form.
Sharks 60%
Sports4Cast: Sharks 64%
Ou Grote (Rob): Sharks by 3
Ou Grote (James): Sharks by 5
Rugby365: Sharks by 6
Sharks at Kings Park are dangerous; Ulster may be underdogs on the road.
Leinster 70%
Sports4Cast: Leinster 81%
Ou Grote (Rob): Leinster by 9
Ou Grote (James): Leinster by 8
Rugby365: Leinster by 5
Historic derby, Leinster’s home advantage and historic dominance push them up in probabilities.
Stormers 75%
Sports4Cast: Stormers 80%
Ou Grote (Rob): Stormers by 19
Ou Grote (James): Stormers by 10
Rugby365: Stormers by 16
Stormers expected to win convincingly on the road; Zebre are among weaker sides away.
Glasgow 65%
Sports4Cast: Glasgow 52%
Ou Grote (Rob): Glasgow by 1
Ou Grote (James): Ospreys by 5
Rugby365: Glasgow by 15
Glasgow’s consistency, especially away from Scotland, gives them a healthy edge.
Edinburgh 65%
Sports4Cast: Edinburgh 72%
Ou Grote (Rob): Edinburgh by 9
Ou Grote (James): Edinburgh by 3
Rugby365: Edinburgh by 5
At home in the Hive, Edinburgh get a favourable edge over Benetton, though the Italians can punch above weight occasionally.
Bulls 60%
Sports4Cast: Bulls 57%
Ou Grote (Rob): Bulls by 5
Ou Grote (James): Connacht by 3
Rugby365: Bulls by 7
Though Dexcom is a challenging surface, Bulls’ depth and power tilt it in their favour, giving them a moderate edge.
Cardiff 60%
Sports4Cast: Cardiff 78%
Ou Grote (Rob): Cardiff by 10
Ou Grote (James): Cardiff by 12
Rugby365: Cardiff by 20
Traditional Welsh contest. Cardiff are marginal favourites, especially away from Dragons’ pressure moments.
Munster 70 %
Sports4Cast Munster 78%
Rugby365: Munster by 8
Ou Grote (Rob): Munster by 5
Ou Grote (James): Munster by 10
Munster are historically strong at home and are often favoured in betting previews.
Edinburgh struggle on the road; depth and travel may hamper them.
Stormers 60 %
Sports4Cast Stormers 51%
Rugby365: Stormers by 5
Ou Grote (Rob): Scarlets by 3
Ou Grote (James): Stormers by 3
Stormers carry power from their SA base; away travel is a hurdle but the matchup is winnable.
Scarlets can be dangerous at home, so probability leaned but not overwhelming.
Lions 55 %
Sports4Cast Benetton 67%
Rugby365: Benetton by 7
Ou Grote (Rob): Benetton by 5
Ou Grote (James): Benetton by 7
Lions have decent touring strength; Benetton are improving, so this is near toss-up territory but slight lean to Lions.
Ospreys 80 %
Sports4Cast Ospreys 83%
Rugby365: Zebre by 9
Ou Grote (Rob): Ospreys by 5
Ou Grote (James): Ospreys by 7
Zebre are among weaker sides, especially away from home.
Ospreys expected to dominate, giving a high win probability
Glasgow 75 %
Sports4Cast Glasgow 93%
Rugby365: Glasgow by 10
Ou Grote (Rob): Glasgow by 11
Ou Grote (James): Glasgow by 10
Glasgow are strong at Scotstoun; Dragons are frequently predicted near bottom of league.
This becomes one of the safer home picks.
Leinster 65 %
Sports4Cast Leinster 86%
Rugby365: Leinster by 10
Ou Grote (Rob): Sharks by 1
Ou Grote (James): Leinster by 5
Leinster’s quality is high; even if some squad fatigue from travel, Sharks travel is tough.
Bulls 55 %
Sports4Cast Bulls 62%
Rugby365: Bulls by 12
Ou Grote (Rob): Bulls by 7
Ou Grote (James): Bulls by 3
Perfect balance: Bulls are strong, Ulster at home helps them — edges to Bulls but modest margin.
Connacht 60 %
Sports4Cast Cardiff 68%
Rugby365: Cardiff by 6
Ou Grote (Rob): Cardiff by 5
Ou Grote (James): Cardiff by 7
Connacht likely to be more consistent; Cardiff home edge narrows it. Lean Connacht but not huge margin.
Rob @OuGrote: Springboks by 20
James @OuGrote: Springboks by 15
Oddschecker most popular: Springboks (2/13)
Sports4Cast: Springboks 29 – 17 (RSA 81% chance)
Bet.co.za: Springboks 1.14 / Argentina 5.50 (lower # favourite)
Hollywoodbets: Springboks 0.12 / Argentina 5.8 (lower # favourite)
Betway.co.za: Springboks 1.13 / Argentina 7.40 (lower # favourite)
10Bet.co.za: Springboks 1.12 / Argentina 7.20 (lower # favourite)
