Kicking will decide RWC

An SA Rugby View believes that kicking out of hand will decide the World Cup.

36-0 will count for nothing tomorrow. At the beginning of the game the scoreboard will state 0-0.

Further, the English have turned their game around since their pool match against South Africa. The combination of their locks with their loosies at ruck time has been magnificent. They have recognised that the Tri-Nations teams commit fewer players to the rucks and have targeted the breakdown. Simon Shaw and Ben Kay have been magnificent at adding vigor to the cleaning. While the Boks have far better fetching skills than the English, this will mean little if support is slow to arrive on attacking ball. With Matfield’s looser role, this could be slow poison for the potent South African backs and reduce our attacking advantage to parity.

To emphasise the English strength at the breakdown consider that the English have conceded 63 turnovers. The Boks have conceded 80. The English have won 305 rucks and lost just 19. The Boks have won 207 and lost 24.

South Africa’s scrumming issues will not have been solved in a week. Poor quality ball against the wheel will mean the Bok line will be forced to kick more than they would like, or play crash ball. This will also open the game up for Gomarsall. The English scrummie has been sheer class since missing the pool game against the Boks, and Fourie du Preez will have his hands full tomorrow.

South Africa should have a far better time at the line out and this will form the Boks primary attacking platform. The South African’s will be expecting to dominate this area and this will encourage the kicking game – traditional test rugby. Good lineout ball in good positions will allow the backs attacking options and this is where Eddie Jones’ influence will be seen. The Boks have had limited opportunities to show some Aussie running lines thus far. When they have, they have looked sharp. Expect to see quick ball from the back of the lineout be spread quickly. The backs will make use of dummy runners with Habana and Pietersen coming in on the wrap around. Jaque Fourie revels in running ball on a tight line off his inside player’s shoulder. He’ll score or switch back on his inside. Francois Steyn must look to offload a fraction earlier if this is to work. As brilliant as Mike Catt has been for the English thus far, he’ll be exposed in these plays. Attacking off 13 will put the defensive burden on the men in white’s centers and away from the blanket that is Jonny Wilkinson. Simon Tait will be in for a torrid time tomorrow.

Lineout stats are fairly even between the the teams so far. The English have won 58 and lost 9. The Boks have also won 58 but lost only 6.

Final rugby is about minimising mistakes, and tomorrow will be no different. A quick score off turnover ball can suck the wind out of a team given the tight defenses of world cup finalists. There will be a lot of kicking for position. The English will not want Habana pouncing on a loose ball and running the length of the field. And while Tait might be a defensive weakness, he’s got the pace to ask questions of South Africa. They will not want to give him any opportunities. Anything within range will be taken tomorrow. Kicking form will be crucial and Montgomery has the record over Wilkinson this tournament. Don’t be surprised to see a return to form for the English pivot tomorrow though. He is BMT personified.

Given all of the above, I think tomorrow will be decided by kicking out of hand and handling. If the South African line kicks are poor, it will give the English opportunities to run the ball up and set up phases. If they respect possession and show patience, they will dominate the recycling points. If this happens, Cronje, Matifeld, Botha and Smith will have to turn in a performance like that of 2005 against the All Blacks at Newlands – almost the perfect game. If this happens it will go down to the wire. The English will not create much and it will come down to a few points. Kicking at poles will be paramount. Under that scenario I’d back the Boks to win – 21-18.

If the Boks are pinpoint with their positional kicking, this could be nasty for the English. Given time in the English 22 with good lineout ball, the Boks should run the  English line ragged. Given that scenario, I’d favour a big score for a final – 28-9.

http://sarugbyview.blogspot.com/2007/10/itll-be-decided-at-rucks.html