AI Grote: Edinburgh 60%
Sports4Cast: Cardiff 57%
Ou Grote (Rob): Edinburgh by 3
Ou Grote (James): Cardiff by 5
Edinburgh’s squad depth may give them the tilt, particularly in an away fixture.
AI Grote: Munster 65%
Sports4Cast: Munster 83%
Ou Grote (Rob): Munster by 7
Ou Grote (James): Munster by 5
A classic Irish provincial clash; Munster at home tend to be strong — though Connacht are never pushovers.
AI Grote: Ospreys 60%
Sports4Cast: Ospreys 72%
Ou Grote (Rob): Ospreys by 10
Ou Grote (James): Ospreys by 12
Welsh derby is competitive; Ospreys slightly better form lately, hence a lean to them.
AI Grote: Stormers 70%
Sports4Cast: Stormers 58%
Ou Grote (Rob): Stormers by 5
Ou Grote (James): Stormers by 7
Stormers have historically fared well against Benetton (see head-to-head stats) and are more consistent; Benetton’s home advantage reduces but does not overturn that gap.
AI Grote: Leinster 80%
Sports4Cast: Leinster 95%
Ou Grote (Rob): Leinster by 7
Ou Grote (James): Leinster by 9
Leinster are strong favourites against a lower-tier side, hence a high probability.
AI Grote: Sharks 65%
Sports4Cast: Sharks 69%
Ou Grote (Rob): Sharks by 9
Ou Grote (James): Sharks by 7
Sharks at home are usually strong; Scarlets are capable of surprises, but this fixture leans clearly to the home side.
AI Grote: Ulster 55%
Sports4Cast: Lions 60%
Ou Grote (Rob): Ulster by 3
Ou Grote (James): Ulster by 5
Ulster’s consistency and touring experience edge them over Lions, though not by a huge margin.
AI Grote: Glasgow Warriors 60%
Sports4Cast: Glasgow Warriors 66%
Ou Grote (Rob): Glasgow Warriors by 6
Ou Grote (James): Bulls by 1
Rugby365: Glasgow Warriors by 6
Though Bulls are a heavy force, Glasgow’s Scotstoun fortress + home crowd support gives them a moderate edge. Still a tough match — 60/40 feels about right.
2026 Greatest Rivalry Tour – New Zealand in South Africa fixtures
Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry, an alternating quadrennial tour between South Africa and New Zealand, has been confirmed, marking a defining new chapter for the intense rivalry between the sport’s most successful and storied nations. In the tour’s maiden year, South Africa will host New Zealand in August and September 2026.
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Lions 65%
Sports4Cast: Lions 64%
Ou Grote (Rob): Scarlets by 3
Ou Grote (James): Lions by 3
Rugby365: Lions by 2
The Lions on home soil are a strong pick, particularly given Scarlets’ inconsistent touring form.
Sharks 60%
Sports4Cast: Sharks 64%
Ou Grote (Rob): Sharks by 3
Ou Grote (James): Sharks by 5
Rugby365: Sharks by 6
Sharks at Kings Park are dangerous; Ulster may be underdogs on the road.
Leinster 70%
Sports4Cast: Leinster 81%
Ou Grote (Rob): Leinster by 9
Ou Grote (James): Leinster by 8
Rugby365: Leinster by 5
Historic derby, Leinster’s home advantage and historic dominance push them up in probabilities.
Stormers 75%
Sports4Cast: Stormers 80%
Ou Grote (Rob): Stormers by 19
Ou Grote (James): Stormers by 10
Rugby365: Stormers by 16
Stormers expected to win convincingly on the road; Zebre are among weaker sides away.
Glasgow 65%
Sports4Cast: Glasgow 52%
Ou Grote (Rob): Glasgow by 1
Ou Grote (James): Ospreys by 5
Rugby365: Glasgow by 15
Glasgow’s consistency, especially away from Scotland, gives them a healthy edge.
